Remaining Objective and Analyzing Charts.
If you’re one of our long-time followers, you know we’ve published on incoming Bitcoin tops, as well as market bottoms.
Our last published technical article, which we wrote in December of 2019, “Risk-On, and Greed Cycles” highlighted that crypto and traditional markets were in need of a “Savage multi-week correction”, which came in the form of COVID crash, just 2 short months after publishing. Hence, our technical readings and market cycle analysis have held up to the tests of time.
The Local Top, and the Short
May 2021 marked the bloodiest month in BTC history, the asset pulled back some 53% in a matter of days. Some attribute this to Tesla Motors’s CEO, Elon Musk, and his tweets. Meanwhile, our team was assessing a possibility of a local top, at $64,7200 as of 3/29/21.
Elon’s tweet barrage didn’t come until after the several rejections of $64k, and BTC had already entered a distribution schematic. After the initial downwards break, our team realized that our $64k local top was indeed valid, hence on 5/3/2021 we derisked our exposure to the market, and opened short positions.
Markets move in cycles, and market cycles have illustrated to us time and time again that crashes and meltdowns are cyclical. Having already taken up short positions prior to the crash at Coin Observatory, we were expecting this move.
The likely question most want answered is: “Is the Bitcoin crash over”?
I can’t answer that with 100% certainty, but I can provide 3 scenarios.
Scenario A, Liquidity Grab — Bullish
The schematic below compares BTC’s move to the SPY’s move during the pre-covid crash era, up until Covid Crash. The method I used to extrapolate a 61.8 retracement is the same. Hence using the “method” to deduce the finding.